Singularity


Jag har aldrig gillat science fiction. Antagligen för att jag nånstans djupt inom mig trott att det var som fantasy i rymdmiljö. Ska börja läsa mer nu, har planerat det i nåt år, men aldrig blivit av.

Läste om Singularity i en artikel av Vernor Vinge precis, och börjar inse att fenomen som han beskriver börjar äga rum. Kom ihåg att detta är 1993, och att hans förutsägelser sakta börjar utkristallisera sig på horisonten, i en allt ökande utvecklingsfart. Läs artikeln, och wikipedia-sidan om det. Han förutspådde att övermänsklig intelligens skulle uppstå någon gång inte tidigare än 2005 och 2030.

Ett urklipp ur Vinges artikel, med några av hans förutsägelser

o Develop human/computer symbiosis in art: Combine the graphic
generation capability of modern machines and the esthetic
sensibility of humans. Of course, there has been an enormous
amount of research in designing computer aids for artists, as
labor saving tools. I’m suggesting that we explicitly aim for a
greater merging of competence, that we explicitly recognize the
cooperative approach that is possible. Karl Sims [22] has done
wonderful work in this direction.
o Allow human/computer teams at chess tournaments. We already
have programs that can play better than almost all humans. But
how much work has been done on how this power could be used by a
human, to get something even better? If such teams were allowed
in at least some chess tournaments, it could have the positive
effect on IA research that allowing computers in tournaments had
for the corresponding niche in AI.
o Develop interfaces that allow computer and network access without
requiring the human to be tied to one spot, sitting in front of a
computer. (This is an aspect of IA that fits so well with known
economic advantages that lots of effort is already being spent on
it.)
o Develop more symmetrical decision support systems. A popular
research/product area in recent years has been decision support
systems. This is a form of IA, but may be too focussed on
systems that are oracular. As much as the program giving the user
information, there must be the idea of the user giving the
program guidance.
o Use local area nets to make human teams that really work (ie,
are more effective than their component members). This is
generally the area of “groupware”, already a very popular
commercial pursuit. The change in viewpoint here would be to
regard the group activity as a combination organism. In one
sense, this suggestion might be regarded as the goal of inventing
a “Rules of Order” for such combination operations. For instance,
group focus might be more easily maintained than in classical
meetings. Expertise of individual human members could be isolated
from ego issues such that the contribution of different members
is focussed on the team project. And of course shared data bases
could be used much more conveniently than in conventional
committee operations. (Note that this suggestion is aimed at team
operations rather than political meetings. In a political
setting, the automation described above would simply enforce the
power of the persons making the rules!)
o Exploit the worldwide Internet as a combination human/machine
tool. Of all the items on the list, progress in this is
proceeding the fastest and may run us into the Singularity before
anything else. The power and influence of even the present-day
Internet is vastly underestimated. For instance, I think our
contemporary computer systems would break under the weight of
their own complexity if it weren’t for the edge that the USENET
“group mind” gives the system administration and support people!)
The very anarchy of the worldwide net development is evidence of
its potential. As connectivity and bandwidth and archive size and
computer speed all increase, we are seeing something like Lynn
Margulis’ [14] vision of the biosphere as data processor
recapitulated, but at a million times greater speed and with
millions of humanly intelligent agents (ourselves).

Så här sa Kevin Kelly för nåt år sen i TED:


Filosfofera fritt. 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